What happened to John McCain? He used to be a pretty good politician, for a Republican. A straight talk'n, straight shoot'n populist. He actually worked to fix campaign financing, limit lobbyist influence and prevent torture by the US government. He was a good campaigner as well.
But the familiar John McCain has been replaced by an evil twin. A doppelganger. To wit; I've never seen a Presidential campaign so inept or a major party candidate so perversly inadequate. Its one staggering blunder after another. Do Pakistan and Iraq share a border? McCain says they do. A few weeks ago, he twice referred to Czechoslovakia, a country that hasn't existed for 15 years. Then there are the numerous incorrect statements he's made about his voting record. These are all facts that are checked. He knows that. Besides the large number of misstatements there have been numerous verbal gaffes by his advisors. Phil Gramm being only the latest thrown under the bus. Lastly, there was McCain's desperate attack on Obama who was effortlessly crushing him for dominance of the news cycle. He said: "I had the courage and the judgment to say that I would rather lose a political campaign than lose a war, It seems to me that Senator Obama would rather lose a war in order to win a political campaign."In US Presidential politics, this is nuclear war. It pisses people off. Even GOP supporters, some of whom are actually rational and don't like being played for chumps.
At this point, it looks like McCain can't possibly win the election. He would be eaisly beaten by any mediocre Democrat. But he isn't facing an apparchik like John Kerry. He's facing one of the best politicians in a generation. This poses a big problem for the GOP. You can only steal a close election, and this doesn't look like its going to be close. It looks like a 1932 style wipeout. Their theft of the 2000 and 2004 elections were more a matter of luck than cunning. They capitlized on Gore's post-election mistakes and got a golden ruling from the Supreme Court in 2000. In 2004 they happened to steal just enough votes in the right place (Ohio). Its not like Karl Rove is Lyndon Johnson. He leaves fingerprints everywhere and his political brilliance is in direct proportion to the incompetence of his opponents. So I'm not expecting the GOP can pull this one out.
As of today, the latest polls have Obama with a 6% national lead over McCain. However, the reports on the poll do not quantify the undecideds. I don't believe the US vote is that polarized, which leads me to conclude most people have not yet firmed up their choice. Put another way, the McCain vote is soft and will erode as people start to really pay attention after labour day.
All this leaves the Republicans in a quandry. The leadership, I mean, not the Senate and House candidates. The candidates are already cooked, even if they haven't figured it out yet. Right now, I'm betting the leadership still thinks McCain will win. The big question, and I guess the point of this post is; what will the Bush politburo do when they figure out they will lose? There are a lot of rich and/or powerful people who are liable for jail time. If McCain wins, that's not going to be a problem. If Obama wins, they could be in trouble. How they are going to deal with that is a central question of this election. At this point, there is no way to know. But it could get really ugly.
